In a remarkable display of imaginative foresight, the Saturday Review’s 1974 anniversary issue offered a glimpse into a fantastical future, contrasting with the grim realities of the present. Led by the esteemed editor Norman Cousins, the magazine assembled a roster of renowned figures including Andrei Sakharov, Neil Armstrong, Jacques Cousteau, Isaac Asimov, and Clare Boothe Luce to share their predictions and proposals for the world fifty years ahead.
While some of the concerns highlighted in the issue, such as oil scarcity and overpopulation, have since receded, they have been replaced by new challenges. Obesity epidemics and the consequences of excessive fossil fuel consumption now dominate the worries of affluent nations. Birth rates are declining globally, leading to panic over shrinking and aging populations. However, the prediction of shrinking birth rates failed to anticipate the significant number of adults, nearly 40% in some countries, who choose not to have children at all.
The future-focused books “China, Inc.” and “Shock of Gray” accurately predicted the global trend of declining birth rates, but failed to foresee the rise of professionally frustrated young Chinese individuals who remain unemployed, unmarried, and childless, dependent on their parents. Similarly, the prosperity and low unemployment in America have dissuaded young men from pursuing higher education, leading to the emergence of a group known as “The Uneducateds” who proudly brandish their lack of degrees as a political virtue.
The visions presented in the Saturday Review’s anniversary issue were even more outlandish than the missed predictions of contemporary futurists. Neil Armstrong envisioned human enclaves living in an ocean of methane goop on Jupiter, complete with wetsuit-clad individuals going about their daily lives after undergoing heart and lung replacement surgery. Andrei Sakharov predicted a world divided into industrial zones and densely populated green belts, with vast cities in space serving as homes to farms and factories.
Interestingly, Sakharov’s description of the world in 1974 resonates with the present, as he observed the open division of governments and the increasing dangers threatening mankind. His critique of Communist societies, with their party and state monopolies, suppression of non-conformist thought, and oppressive ideologies, finds parallels in the autarchic states of today.
Looking towards the future, the boom in artificial intelligence and the construction of data centers aimed at capturing its potential have become significant drivers of investment and policy. Predictions suggest that over $1 trillion, and potentially even $7 trillion, will be spent on data infrastructure for next-gen computing. The implications of this computing power remain uncertain, but the world is placing a substantial bet on its transformative potential.
Norman Cousins, the editor of the Saturday Review, believed that expert predictions often fall short because they are based solely on existing facts. He argued that emotional intelligence and hopeful visions, rather than extrapolations from current data, have the power to shape the future. Cousins emphasized the importance of faith in the human species’ ability to work together on global problems, suggesting that such optimism can render pessimistic forecasts powerless.